2015 Allliance; sunk before its launched?

Since the referendum, with a little more time (I stress, only a little) I've been sitting in the background of things a wee bit more. Analysing, thinking, observing. In the immediate aftermath, I wrote a piece on where I thought the Independence movement should go next, I've re read that post before writing this and to be honest my outlook remains virtually the same. I know where I'd like us to go, but how to get there and the likelihood of getting there, have changed somewhat dramatically.  The devo max/Yes/team Scotland alliance.

The likelihood of this alliance was for me always less of a problem than the logistics of the alliance itself. I imagined (perhaps somewhat foolishly looking back) that there would be a desire from all parties and groups to work towards this post referendum. The main problem I could see was the logistics of it and how it would function in terms of candidates selection processes and the manifesto or mandate to the people beyond more powers. The last wee while however, observing the social media patterns of discussion firstly, followed by the most recent polling figures indicate to me that perhaps the likelihood of an Alliance is now dead in the water. 

It is now ultimately down to the SNP. On reflection, it always was. The SSP have voted in favour, and the Greens would be ridiculous to say no if such a situation was to develop where the SNP begun negotiations. With the recent influx of the SNP coming off the back of what I think we can all agree was a constructive and positive relationship in Yes Scotland I had thought there would be a growing appetite for such an arrangement by now within the ranks. The recent polling figures however have thrown a substantial spanner in the works...

If recent polling figures are accurate at this point in time then it's nothing short of unbelievable. For a party that's been in Government for the past 7 years, coming of the back of a referendum defeat on the sole issue the party exists for to be hitting figures like that is breathtaking. These polls have, somewhat understandably, sent many SNPers both old and new into a state of near orgasmic pleasure. A wipeout of all labour MPs minus a solid block of 4, with some very notable high profile casualties. These polls however are before election fever if you will, with the Labour Party in Scotland leaderless and directionless, and the likelihood of anything like these figures being replicated in May are in my opinion very unlikely

In the heat of an election campaign, with the debates and media coverage, fuelled by the party propaganda machine turning it into the old Labour vs Tory battle for control, the idea that so many would flock to the SNP alone is wishful thinking. I accept things have changed, I accept there's a new political landscape in Scotland, but the message has always been that the SNP can truly look after Scotland's interests to the full at Westminster. It hasn't worked. 

We spent the last two years being told it wasn't about the SNP. It was about the wider goal of Independence and powers to transform Scotland. That message struck a chord. It was in areas with least to lose and most to gain from taking a punt that voted Yes. The "Labour heartlands". Now like it or lump it, these people won't vote SNP at Westminster elections. In order to maximise the chance of taking these kind of areas, a broad alliance, with suitable candidates in areas like this, is the only way to cause real and lasting damage to Westminster. 

It was in the United efforts of the campaign, and a real scrap on the ground, that these communities voted Yes. We'd be letting them down by making them make the same old choice as before. Let's no just talk about a different political landscape in Scotland, let's create it. One thing the referendum showed is that when there's real change on offer people listen, participate and support. 

So my message to the SNP is thus; I understand the desire to go it alone. I understand the feeling of confidence in the ranks. But don't think short term, think long term. Put country before party and put the people who's expectations we raised so high back at the forefront. Give a clear and new alternative to the same old same old. Let's be everything they fear; a popular, new, broad based alternative. Only then can we truly say we've kept the Yes movement alive.

Devo-Max alliance; the next stage on the home rule journey

Post referendum Scotland is becoming ever less predictable by the day. A soulless and directionless party losing their leader last week the latest in a series of staggering and headline grabbing events signifying that far from a No vote settling the constitutional issue of Scotland and the UK, it’s led to an unprecedented and seemingly un-controllable shift in Scottish politics. The leading faces of the Tory funded BetterTogether campaign are suffering a self-created meltdown, all in front of the media and public (we did warn them), the 3 independence parties in contrast have saw unparalleled recruitment as the next stage of Scotlands home rule journey begins. Note that it’s a journey, friends, not a short trip…

We did ultimately lose the referendum, and despite the increase in membership and desire to keep the campaign together and working cooperatively, we have to examine and think strategically about how best to do it. The first initial and obvious way to do so is through a Yes alliance in the upcoming 2015 Westminster elections. I am delighted to report that my party, the SSP, voted for such an alliance at our annual party conference on Saturday past. However I accept that ultimately the decision rests with SNP members due to the parties’ size, financial ability and the voting system of FPTP. This alliance, must in my opinion, not simply be a re-run of the Referendum, but a Devo-Max alliance. 3 parties temporarily putting aside our desire for Independence to respect the wishes of the Scottish people and to ensure that Westminster delivers on its pre Referendum promises of devolution max. To claim that a majority of pro-independence MPs equals a mandate for Independence is pure fantasy and ignores the best feature of the Yes movement; the empowerment and politicisation of local people across the country. Likewise, the argument that 2016 elections to Holyrood are the “independence elections” is again pure fantasy.

However, intertwined with such an alliance MUST be our role in the anti-austerity movement. A poll for You-Gov tonight puts UKIP at a staggering 17% while the Tories and Labour remain in a dead heat at 33% each. The possibility of a Tory-Ukip coalition is now not merely campaign soundbite, but ever approaching reality. The best scenario we can hope for is a Labour government, which is also committed in its entirety to the austerity agenda and would ultimately see the same amount of cuts as a Tory government in Westminster. What we as an Independence movement have to do is to reorganise in the background, ensuring our newly found relationships remain relatively solid at a local level, realising our mistakes, and to be prepared for when the next referendum occurs, which is now I believe a formality. While doing this however we MUST be out in full force against the austerity politics of Westminster and highlighting and helping the plight of those affected. The people behind the statistical information are our main concern.

What we have approaching is going to be a brutally tough few years for the working class population of Scotland, and the lower middle classes who will continue to see their incomes squeezed on account of tax breaks and economic policy designed to benefit the few. People’s lives will be affected, potentially ruined, by the impacts of these rounds of cuts. What we as a movement, wider than the 3 parties although absolutely encompassing them in the process has to do is to ensure that we are the first point of protocol for those affected. We need to be in this for the long haul and not just for political posturing, but for our belief in the common good and a common resolve to help our 

community and friends.

Take the next step in the home rule journey, don’t jump ahead of the population and kill Independence stone dead and allow the momentum to evaporate. And never let the values and aspirations which dominated the Yes movement be forgotten about or put onto the back burner. As it is our commitment and resolve to fulfil these values, and our commitment to match the now vastly increased ambitions and expectations of the wider population that will see an Independent Scotland, still within our lifetime.

Post referendum thoughts- Where do we go from here?

This is a piece I never ever wanted to write, and one I thought I would never need to write. I was confident, in my heart of hearts, that if the Scottish people were ever fortunate enough to be asked the question of self-determination that we would always say Yes; I was wrong.

Since the exhausting but memorable day of Thursday 18^th September 2014 (in-between one or maybe even two light alcoholic beverages) my mind’s been pondering on so many questions: Where did it go wrong? Where do we go from here? How bad is this for Scotland? Will we ever get a chance of this again? Do I have it in me to fight for another chance, never mind fight a referendum campaign again? I’ve went back and forth, coming to what I thought was a conclusion before returning to square one again, but I’m going to try piece together my thoughts in a coherent way here…

1-      Where did it go wrong? – After analysing really the entirety of the last 2 years of my life in this campaign, I’ve came to the conclusion that really, we couldn’t have done much more than we did. We came up against the might of the British Establishment; we took on the media, the civil service, the UK government, big business, and the security services. Armed only with the biggest and most vibrant group of everyday people we could muster, a few clipboards and the like and a message of hope and transformation, we took the UK and its ruling elite to the brink of extinction. We lost because of two reasons; i- The elite and the privileged came out to protect their privileges. The second was the pensioners of Scotland were frightened to death, by a dishonest and ruthlessly fearful No campaign. I was manning several polling stations on the day in the East End of Glasgow and no campaigners were urging elderly voters to “go in and protect your pension”. I wouldn’t do anything different over the past 2 years. I wouldn’t suggest anything that the groups I was involved in working with could have done differently. We were unlucky, defeated on the night but withholding a lasting legacy.

2-      Where do we go from here? – It’s this which has really dragged me from conclusion to conclusion over the past 2 days. It’s clear that a strategy is needed to move forward, but we’re all at the moment at odds and ends as to what that strategy must be. I’ll split this into three sections. Firstly, the 2015 elections to Westminster, then the 2016 elections in Holyrood and council elections of 2017, followed lastly by the future of the left.

When I say we, I mean the Yes movement. That’s what it is now, a movement. We began as a campaign and ended as a movement. We need to keep that movement together. The potential for a coalition of SNP, SSP, Greens, RIC and Woman for Indy to take several seats at Westminster as a “Scotland alliance” is clear. We polled 1.6 million across Scotland on Thursday night, the partners in crime of the No campaign will go their separate ways in May next year. They will be scrapping over the same votes. We can utilise and harvest every vote, in constituency areas that we won in the referendum we have the potential to oust some key Labour figures. We can offer the people that their vote will matter in 2015. They don’t just have the choice of two right wing parties, they can vote for an alliance which will have the potential to: table motions on Trident renewal, an end to the Bedroom Tax, an end to the Welfare cap, increased social housing development. Real changes which will affect lives not just in Scotland, but in the UK as a whole. I want to make this clear- that is what I see as the only and best way forward for us as movement in the elections of next year. I have no problems about damaging the Labour parties’ chance of a majority Government. They chose this route, they chose to defend Westminster and its horrific voting system. The days of sitting at the back of the bus, shutting up and voting Labour are over.

Now, onto the 2016 Scottish elections and 2017 council elections… What we have in both of these elections, is a far better voting system in both the AMS, and STV. The obvious answer to local elections is that the parties ask their voters to only give preferences to the pro Independence parties. In cities like Glasgow in particular, if that’s replicated across the board, coupled with many Labour voters who could never ever give a preference to any of the partners of their coalition, we could potentially gain overall control of Glasgow City Council.  At the very least we could build a far bigger local government base for all 3 pro Independence parties right across Scotland. In terms of 2016, the key is to get as many pro Independence MSPS in the chamber as is possible. There is the potential there for parties to work constructively with each other across areas where the anti- Independence parties are on a shoogly nail, and where support for Independence peaked in the referendum. Pragmatism and cooperation is key going forward

The left can be very proud of our efforts in this campaign. We dragged the mainstream debate, at times kicking and screaming it must be said, to the left. We brought ideas of renationalisation, wealth redistribution, opposition to nuclear weapons, greater local democracy, a green revolution to the forefront. The big question now is what next for us as Socialist movement. As a member of the Scottish Socialist Party, I’ve been both overjoyed and extremely proud of our recent explosion of membership. We have now recruited 2000 new members across Scotland since end of polls Thursday night. However, I was also a campaigner and organiser within the Radical Independence Campaign, I met and campaigned alongside comrades who are and wish to remain out with the party political system. I want to keep campaigning alongside those activists now and into the future. The best way in which I see forward for the socialist movement as a whole is a Socialist alliance. One which allows us to keep our separate identities as the ISG, SSP, non-aligned or whatever you wish to be, but one which allows us to conduct selection processes and elections in a way which allows for the growth of the movement as a whole, not personalities or egos.  An alliance which can, and if we work hard enough will, tap into the Socialist voice of Scotland to the full.

3-      Will we ever get this chance again? – It was my belief right through this campaign, and it remains my belief now, that we will never get the opportunity of Independence again. At the moment, I have no desire to participate in another referendum campaign. I accept the wishes of the Scottish people, they voted to remain part of the UK on Thursday. I feel we all need to accept that and move on and work with what we have. I believe now however, as I have all my life, and will continue to believe all my life, that Scotland should be an Independent country. Should the circumstances of the UK we chose to remain a part of change, such as the removal of the UK from Europe against the wishes of the Scottish people, I may be convinced that then is the right time to revisit the question of Independence, The only way I will accept our Independence however is through the sovereign will of the Scottish people via referendum.

The last two years have been the best few years of my life. I witnessed my community and my friends become engaged in politics, and have no wish to watch that fade away again. My desire to help those forced to go to a foodbank, sanctioned, or had disability rights taken away from them are as strong now as they were 2 years ago. I am as committed to a socialist Scotland now as I was two years ago. I am as resolute in my belief in the advantages and benefits of an Independent Scotland to the majority of the population now as I was two years ago. Those are my thoughts on the direct future ahead. The goal remains the same, but we've got to outmaneuver the defence in a different way.  Be proud of your efforts, be proud of all you worked for. It was not in vain, we have changed Scotland beyond belief. One day, Scotland will reap the rewards. 

Now or never

As we reach yet another milestone on the road to what I hope will be a historic, emphatic and proud two fingers held aloft to the British establishment on the 18^th September, I feel that now is the time to (briefly) reflect on the campaign so far and to prepare ourselves for the final, massive push in our quest to begin the journey to transform this country into a land to be proud to call home. 100 days to go. 100 days that will determine our, and the nation’s future forever.

The past 2 years for every activist in this campaign are I’m sure ones we will remember for the rest of our life. Every single day I think about new, exciting ways to get more people involved in our movement and how will we win this in September. That is what it is, by the way, a movement. The campaign to secure self-determination for Scotland has grown so rapidly and so wide spread that it simply cannot be described as anything less. From the 3 parties that make up Yes (SSP, SNP, Greens) to RIC, The Common Weal, National Collective, WFI, LFI and many more organisations fighting for a Yes vote it has been a period of great, and crucially joint activity. This campaign has once again united in particular the left to a level I myself have never experienced thanks to the now infamous Sheridan sex and perjury betrayal.  We have on this road so far since the launch of Yes Scotland back in 2012 came a very long way, but the finish line is still a considerable distance away.

With the latest polling putting Yes at a level of around 40-43%, it is quite clear that in the 100 days that follow we need to be out doing much more. We in Yes are very fortunate to have a massively larger grassroots campaign; we now NEED it to be rolling out across Scotland in vast numbers. The first step to this, being the RIC National Mass Canvass on the 22^nd, an event which has in my opinion the potential to be one of the greatest showings of the campaign so far and a real springboard from which to finish this campaign in style. The message going into the last stretch has to be quite simply that the consequences of a No vote are absolutely disastrous for the people of Scotland. We will have as a nation rejected the chance to control our own destiny, we will have looked at being the 4^th most unequal country in the developed world, a country with foodbanks being the major growth industry, a country in which people shiver to death in winter, a country in parts with lower life expectancy rates than that of some nations of Africa and the Gaza Strip, a country with a corrupt political and social elite and we will have taken all of this into account and accepted it as being the best we can do. We will have become the first nation on earth to reject the chance of self-determination.  I am simply not prepared to allow this to happen.

The referendum on September 18^th is more than a vote; it’s a symbol of self-confidence. Confidence in our ability to take control over all of our affairs and our ability to create a fairer and kinder society. The rather timid approach of some within the campaign desperate not to rock the boat too heavily is one that the left cannot adopt or play by until September 18^th if we truly want to win this. A message of real and radical change after September the 18^th is the only thing that will truly win this referendum and the only reason we as Socialists and progressives back the need for Independence. The left needs to promote ideas such as a charter of workers’ and disabled rights, a real living wage for ALL workers, a commitment to reindustrialisation and to skilled employment, a commitment to equality for all, a commitment to a desire for a Republic, a commitment to free and high quality higher education, a commitment to politics of the people, a commitment to high quality public services. These are the approaches, the visions, the ambitions to which we need to be talking about and aspiring to create. Capitalism wrapped in a saltire simply isn’t good enough.

It really is now or never, we either seize this chance or spend a lifetime wishing we had. For our own and future generations sake need to win on September 18^th. Forever be remembered as the generation which allowed our country to prosper, grow and evolve into a fair and just society or the generation which consigned our country to more austerity, more Tory governments, more inequality and more poverty.  I know which I want to be remembered as. Get out there and play your part. Onwards to victory!

Project Fear is now Operation Bully

Despite the British Prime Minister’s insistence on this being a debate between Scots as he ducks and dives out of a debate with Alex Salmond, his Chancellor George Osbourne felt himself inclined yesterday to remind Scots that we are not, as Better Together would like us to believe, equal partners in this “Great” Union but merely wee players in the continuation of British colonialism.

The visit by Osbourne was rather not surprisingly carried out in secrecy, to avoid the certainty of a demonstration as the British establishment finally realises Scotland is further apart politically than geographically to their Etonian wonderland, the city of London and Downing Street. Osbourne’s announcement (if you can call it that) was to mark the step in the direction of the No campaign in the months to follow. A message of not only fear, but now bullying… Today’s polling in the Daily Record however shows that this message has actually led to a swing in the favour of Yes and there is a mere 4 points between both campaigns with a whole 7 months of campaigning to go. Keep up the good work George!

A Tory chancellor dictated to Scotland travelling to Edinburgh to preach to Scots about the response of the British establishment at the prospect of Scottish self-determination and break from unelected Tory rule ( the same rule which has saw the almost complete destruction of working class life and values from the Thatcher era) was not surprising. What was also not surprising was the response from the diet Tories in Westminster, New Labour who are standing shoulder to shoulder with the millionaire backed Tory led Better Together campaign in their pursuit to stop Scottish home rule. The same Labour party which it would seem much prefer a Westminster Tory government to a Labour government in an Independent Scotland, why?? The gravy train continues...  Expenses, wage rises, punishing the poorest and most vulnerable in society for the mistakes of those at the top… What’s not to love about British politics?! Being the mouth piece of the Tory party in Scotland is no problem for new Labour.

The reason for the speech at this time of the campaign was quite simple, an attempt to put the brakes on the momentum of Yes. With today’s polling however showing it has had the very opposite effect, I think the Yes response has to be powerful and dominating. The argument for a new Scottish pound free from Tory austerity policy, free from the 1.3 trillion pounds of debt accumulated over the past decade at Westminster has never been so prevalent with 69% of people admitting that currency won’t have an effect on their final vote in the referendum. A clean fresh break to have full fiscal control of the vast amount of wealth contained both in our oil reserves and future off shore renewable energy sources to create a special society in Scotland, to not be tied to the austerity agenda of the rest of the UK, to utilise our potential to the full. Sounds good to me.

The largest grassroots campaign this country has ever seen is beginning to pick up speed, the wheels are moving and the patrionising Tories and their pals in new Labour are frightened. Scottish Independence is the first step in the complete break of their comfy lifestyles feeding off the taxpayer with lavish expenses for 2^nd homes and dinners in the Commons. It’s now down to us to transfer that momentum into every community in Scotland. Knock doors, speak to voters and answer questions. The time is now, the possibility of self-determination is slowly becoming a reality. The No campaign will muddy the waters with everything they possibly can between now and September. Time to take the front foot in this debate, its time for Yes.