The likelihood of this alliance was for me always less of a problem than the logistics of the alliance itself. I imagined (perhaps somewhat foolishly looking back) that there would be a desire from all parties and groups to work towards this post referendum. The main problem I could see was the logistics of it and how it would function in terms of candidates selection processes and the manifesto or mandate to the people beyond more powers. The last wee while however, observing the social media patterns of discussion firstly, followed by the most recent polling figures indicate to me that perhaps the likelihood of an Alliance is now dead in the water.
It is now ultimately down to the SNP. On reflection, it always was. The SSP have voted in favour, and the Greens would be ridiculous to say no if such a situation was to develop where the SNP begun negotiations. With the recent influx of the SNP coming off the back of what I think we can all agree was a constructive and positive relationship in Yes Scotland I had thought there would be a growing appetite for such an arrangement by now within the ranks. The recent polling figures however have thrown a substantial spanner in the works...
If recent polling figures are accurate at this point in time then it's nothing short of unbelievable. For a party that's been in Government for the past 7 years, coming of the back of a referendum defeat on the sole issue the party exists for to be hitting figures like that is breathtaking. These polls have, somewhat understandably, sent many SNPers both old and new into a state of near orgasmic pleasure. A wipeout of all labour MPs minus a solid block of 4, with some very notable high profile casualties. These polls however are before election fever if you will, with the Labour Party in Scotland leaderless and directionless, and the likelihood of anything like these figures being replicated in May are in my opinion very unlikely
In the heat of an election campaign, with the debates and media coverage, fuelled by the party propaganda machine turning it into the old Labour vs Tory battle for control, the idea that so many would flock to the SNP alone is wishful thinking. I accept things have changed, I accept there's a new political landscape in Scotland, but the message has always been that the SNP can truly look after Scotland's interests to the full at Westminster. It hasn't worked.
We spent the last two years being told it wasn't about the SNP. It was about the wider goal of Independence and powers to transform Scotland. That message struck a chord. It was in areas with least to lose and most to gain from taking a punt that voted Yes. The "Labour heartlands". Now like it or lump it, these people won't vote SNP at Westminster elections. In order to maximise the chance of taking these kind of areas, a broad alliance, with suitable candidates in areas like this, is the only way to cause real and lasting damage to Westminster.
It was in the United efforts of the campaign, and a real scrap on the ground, that these communities voted Yes. We'd be letting them down by making them make the same old choice as before. Let's no just talk about a different political landscape in Scotland, let's create it. One thing the referendum showed is that when there's real change on offer people listen, participate and support.
So my message to the SNP is thus; I understand the desire to go it alone. I understand the feeling of confidence in the ranks. But don't think short term, think long term. Put country before party and put the people who's expectations we raised so high back at the forefront. Give a clear and new alternative to the same old same old. Let's be everything they fear; a popular, new, broad based alternative. Only then can we truly say we've kept the Yes movement alive.
